Will the population of Eastern and South-Eastern Asia exceed 2.45 billion this century?
Will the population of Eastern and South-Eastern Asia exceed 2.45 billion this century?
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While researching further out data for Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?19% and Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?22% , I noticed that the UN had projections for what level the populations of various regions will cap out at. Will these medium-case projections be exceeded?
The relevant section from the 2022 UN Projections:
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia is projected to reach a maximum population size of 2.4 billion around 2034 and the population of Central and Southern Asia is projected to peak some 38 years later at 2.7 billion around 2072.
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Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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