If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES. Otherwise NO after close.
10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors:
outright deaths
decrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe
reduction in population replacement curves, over the global average
etc.
Our baseline for decrease in population not due to extraordinary deaths will be framed around the 2022 UN Projections (currently located here). This is not the defining point of truth if solid analysis and data comes to light, especially considering that the UN already takes some climate trends into account, but it's a great indicator of unexpected change, such as if life expectancy, fertility, or replacement rates drop precipitously in later versions of their projections. See also the OWID data linked in this comment on the 2050 market.
Some 2050 numbers from the 2022 projections (the data is less clear for after 2050):
9.7 billion humans
16.4% aged 65+
Fertility (births per woman): 2.1
Life expectancy: 77.2; 74.8 (M), 79.8 (F)
Since there aren't as solid projections this far out, the data referenced is subject to change.
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2050: /Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans
2070 (this): /Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-9f63de4b27a2
2090: /Stralor/will-climate-change-decimate-humans-a6501c666cd9
1,000
1.00@DanielBets if studies show that declined fertility rates relative to the fertility rates of today cause a 10% decline in population, that would suffice
@Stralor so just to confirm, for it to resolve yes, two things would have to be true:
1) Studies show that fertility rates decline because of climate change.
2) Population declines by at least 10%. E.g. goes from 10B in 2060 to 9B in 2070.
Or is that population just needs to decline relative to projections, which would be:
1) Studies show fertility rates decline because of climate change.
2) Population projections for 2070 are 10B, but population only ends up being 8.7B.
If it's the second one, at what point are the projections finalized?
@DanielBets the second.
on one hand, the projections we're basing off of already exist.
OTOH, this market doesn't require formal, rigid preset numbers, as our projections can be wrong for a number of reasons and might already offset for climate change.
sooo what I'm really looking for is future studies that do mathematical analysis of the realized effects of climate change on population. and i'd expect the studies to rigorously establish the standards we'd use to determine that effect, quantifiably. (see also this section of the description):
Our baseline for decrease in population not due to extraordinary deaths will be framed around the 2022 UN Projections (currently located here). This is not the defining point of truth if solid analysis and data comes to light, especially considering that the UN already takes some climate trends into account, but it's a great indicator of unexpected change, such as if life expectancy, fertility, or replacement rates drop precipitously in later versions of their projections. See also the OWID data linked in this comment on the 2050 market.