Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2030, and what will be the cause?

Plus

Ṁ3656

2030

ALL

91%

No global catastrophe

0.6%

Nuclear

1.9%

Biological

Artificial Intelligence

0.9%

Nanotechnology

0.3%

Climate

0.4%

Other cause

If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause. Otherwise, resolves to "no global catastrophe".

See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

The aggregate of 273 Metaculus community forecasters was 38% on Jul 21, 2023.

Get

1,000

and

1.00

6 Comments

Sort by:

What does was fall under?

@whhatisachoice war*

@whhatisachoice other cause, unless one of the listed causes applies (e.g. nuclear war)

bought Ṁ3 Other cause YES

Rapture.

Arbitrage with
Nuclear should be >= /AlexbGoode/will-an-accident-involving-miniatur

Arbitrage with: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

17% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d…

Related questions

Related questions