This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to nuclear weapons. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.

I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:

• https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and

• https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/