Will there be an international or global crisis in the year 2024?

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Dec 31

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17%

Yes, an extended military conflict in the Middle East, escalating into a multi-international, possibly global, conflict.

Yes, a new, unprecedented disease/pandemic emerging somewhere on Earth, spreading rapidly and endangering life (human, animal, or plant).

Yes, a natural disaster such as a massive earthquake, an eruption of a super volcano, or others.

Yes, AI technology taking over vital systems in the global economy, causing unforeseen events like the overnight collapse of multinational corporations or even entire nations."

Yes, a solar flare causing a global blackout. Or a meteorite/asteroid hitting Earth and causing significant damage.

1.7%

Yes, an extraterrestrial invasion (whether real or false).

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Yes, a natural disaster such as a massive earthquake, an eruption of a super volcano, or others.

can you define “massive” here? Is this 7.0? 8.0? 9.0?

@mattyb Such as an earthquake affecting multiple states. Something that could be considered an international or global crisis.

@Tamashi Would last years Turkey/Syria earthquakes qualify?

@Symmetry I imagine something of a more apocalyptic nature. The earthquake in Turkey doesn't qualify for that.

@Tamashi But it was a massive earthquake affecting multiple states. Youre criteria don't seem very coherent. It's hard to bet on this market.

@Symmetry Yes, you're right. It's not something easily measurable. It's more of an idea or a concept of a crisis or something out of the ordinary

@Tamashi I'm assuming this would have qualified:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami

What about the earthquake/tsunami that led to the Fukushima incident?

@AlQuinn Certainly, yes in both cases.

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