Will Mitochondria mutations be identified as the primary root cause of aging by 2035?
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Resolution Criteria: This market resolves based on my credence in 2035. I will not trade in this market after September 8, 2025.

Post inspiring this question: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/3hfjaztptwEt2cCve/p/ui6mDLdqXkaXiDMJ5

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how do you feel about RFK Jr?

(if this market is subjective, I want to get your take on what you find convincing)

@KJW_01294

Until I just googled, I did not know who that person is. I don't live in the US. I don't think it's going to be useful to explain my takes relative to him unless you have something specific in mind.

I think most root causes can be ruled out based on homeostasis (if the thing in question has a turnover rate of days, weeks or months, it is unlikely to be a root cause), and this argument is not appreciated enough.
I am extremely sceptical of people who say "there cannot be a single root cause". Anyone I've talked to who claimed that did not present any evidence, making me think that it is plausible.
I am extremely sceptical of most ageing research related to epigenetic reprogramming of cells. I think it's possible that something like that could work and is neglected by evolution because it comes together with a risk of cancer, but I would not give it more than 10%. I think it is more likely that it is going to be either transposons, mitochondrial DNA mutations or something else I am not thinking of.
I think transposons are more likely, and we might get some evidence for or against this hypothesis soon from artificial yeast without transposons. I think in principle, this paper could also be evidence against transposons, but I haven't taken the time to understand it.