Will I still be offered a yearly drawing gig at the end of 2025?
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This is a special case of the larger question of "will the artists lose jobs to the AI?"

For 4 years now at the end of every year I've been getting a drawing commission from a tea merchant, to design some packaging (something like that https://imgur.com/a/lCQnJeQ). Recently though, they began experimenting with AI designs as well. Will they keep commissioning me or not?

YES if they commission me at the end of 2024 and 2025 as well.

NO if they don't, at the end of either year, so a fast resolution is possible.

N/A if the merchant goes out of business.

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How do we account for the case where they commission you to edit an existing ai generated image for a lower price?

As "No", as "me not being offered". Also, it's not going to happen, they edit their AI images themselves, not that they need a whole lot of editing now.