If AGI has an okay outcome, will there be an AGI singleton? | Manifold

If AGI has an okay outcome, will there be an AGI singleton?

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An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:

An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.

This resolves YES if I can easily point to the single AGI that has an okay outcome, and NO otherwise.

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Do you have a neat general definition of "single AI"? (Note: it's fine to say No, I don't have one ready and wouldn't want you to waste time on this).

More specific cases: Were all responses from GPT-4o in the OpenAI API part of the same AI? How about GPT-4 and GPT-4o together?

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Will we get AGI before 2026?

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Will we get AGI before 2030?

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Will we get AGI before 2035?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

A multipolar AGI scenario is safer than a singleton AGI scenario

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