Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
21%
chance

Also includes legislative branch, congress, senate, house of representatives etc as long as it's at the national level.

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sold Ṁ14 NO

Does this count?

Hmm, I'm inclined against, because although its overall objective and HQ are somewhat EA-aligned, it doesn't seem to be a full political party, and other than mentioning their membership, the wiki pages for the leading members don't seem to really talk about it or relevant cause areas

I assume you're talking about the US? Can you make that explicit?

predicts NO

@ErwinRossen I'm talking about any nation. I only mentioned US stuff in the description because it occurred to me they use different names for their parliament equivalents.

  1. I'd suggest the term "legislature"

  2. What does "aligned" mean here exactly?

predicts NO

@BrunoParga has publicly declared their support of the movement on multiple occasions

@TheAllMemeingEye So, to be clear, a party for which incidentally most of its people are EA, which EA groups support, and which has priorities similar to EA would not count as "aligned" without the party itself making a statement linking itself to EA?

@UnspecifiedPerson I kinda considered that a higher bar to meet, but you're right, that should count too if somehow that happened without the declaration of support. For what it's worth I would count support within core documents such as the party manifesto or election pledges too.