What Will Happen to Cabinet-Schoof (Dutch Politics) [ADD RESPONSES]
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21
Ṁ28k
2028
76%
Cabinet will fall before 1st of September 2025
76%
Cabinet will fall before 31 december 2025
69%
Border checks will last longer than 6 months
66%
Cabinet can't agree on nitrogen approach
63%
Marjolein Faber will be replaced as minister of Immigration
62%
If Schoof 1 falls, NSC will be responsible.
48%
Next Minister who leaves is from NSC
44%
Next 'Staatssecretaris' who leaves is also from NSC
25%
Immigration will fall by at least 20% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)
24%
Dick Schoof will have a sport injury
21%
A message on X will be the downfall of Cabinet-Schoof
21%
Pieter Omztig will step down
15%
Someone from the cabinet will literally fall
13%
Dick Schoof is the first one to leave the Cabinet
10%
Geert Wilders will do a long television interview
5%
Immigration will fall by at least 30% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)
5%
PVV will create a TikTok account
5%
One or more cabinet members will give up there second passport
3%
PVV will become a party with members
3%
Cabinet will send Dutch troops to Ukraine

  • Update 2024-27-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Definition of Crying: Having wet eyes in environments such as a cinema is considered crying.

    • Resolution Criteria: Based on how the media perceived the event.

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Annoying that many options are described as a negative, very confusing.

Cabinet will send Dutch troops to Ukraine
bought Ṁ5 Cabinet will send Du... YES

@TheWabiSabi Presumably you mean combat troops or peacekeeping troops, as opposed to trainers, advisors, cyberwarfare troops or soldiers escorting dutch arms shipments, which may already be in the country.

@Sqeedee yes, thank you for helping making it more clear.

@TheWabiSabi of nobody is against Yes I will resolve yes tomorrow @traders

@TheWabiSabi Pretty cool that someone put this on the list! Well done. I wouldn't have thought of it.

@TheWabiSabi The Instagram link seems to have died, but I watched the thing on YouTube. I have an interest in saying yes but I don't think I saw tears? More like he got 'stuck'?

@TheWabiSabi tough call. i haven't bet on this question, and i won't. But i would say NO, this isn't crying. he's barely holding it in, though.
YT link (480p): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OGrxefEPBQ&t=276s

@Sqeedee Agree, but what is a cry... just wet eyes? Or waterfalls on his face?

It's definitely a hard one...

@uair01 Thank you :)

@TheWabiSabi Maybe we can look at it somewhat objectively by looking at how media is responding to it, if they are using words like 'emotional' (geëmotioneerd).

Or we can compare it to similar recent moments of politicians crying:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjhyHBf330M&t=30s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0XT5We-qes

maybe that last one is also questionable.

I guess you can resolve it as yes.

I suspect we'll see Omtzigt cry some more anyway before the cabinet falls.

@Sqeedee if I was Omtzigt, I would have called it crying. But for me having wet eyes in a cinema is crying as well.

I will resolve yes later today, because of how the media percieved is.

@TheWabiSabi Well, anyone got any photographs?

Or can we resolve this to no?

bought Ṁ250 Answer #uzywrzvnbp NO

@Sqeedee I think we can resolve no, did a search and couldn't find any as well

@TheWabiSabi resolving this seems kind of premature? Omtzigt could still take a leave longer than 3 months? (Although I agree this leave was not longer than 3 months)

@EvdZ agree that this could be formulated better. If Omtzigt gets ill again I will unresolve this one, does that feel right?

bought Ṁ50 PVV will create a Ti... NO

@traders who has betting ideas to add?

bought Ṁ250 Answer #pE6cZCP0dC YES

@MarnixVreugdenhil good one. Coin toss for me.

Both directions are counted, since the responsible minister also counts both ways in his statements. His plans are to make 133 km of roads (counting both directions) permanently 130 km/h.

@traders who has suggestions for more options to add here?

I haven't seen any negative tweets by Wilders. Has anyone else? If not, I'd say we can resolve NO.

bought Ṁ846 Answer #qhkttvdqnt NO

@TheWabiSabi For clarity on this market. Omtzigt's leave of absence was announced on september 11: https://www.nu.nl/politiek/6327802/nsc-leider-omtzigt-doet-tijdelijk-stap-terug-om-gezondheidsredenen.html
Does that mean this market will resolve to YES if he is still on leave on october 11?
of if he takes a leave of absence longer than a month at a later date?

@Sqeedee yes if he is still at home on October 11th, stays unresolved otherwise and No at the end of this cabinet if he returns before October 11th.