The CSU would like to keep the Bavarian plant Isar 2 under federal jurisdiction: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bavaria-asks-nuclear-power-comeback-under-own-responsibility-after-fresh-exit-2023-04-15/

I doubt they can pull it off.

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Without new information, this seems too high. Also, the current coalition (which contains the very anti-nuclear Greens) will still be in power by then. There could be a world in which Germany installs small modular reactors without calling them nuclear, but unlikely for these to be active by 2024.

Why is this trending so much higher than https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-major-nuclear-power-plant-in ?

@TANSTAAFL Well, this one is later (and over a longer period), so enough time to refuel and restart a reactor. That might be it.

@TimP That's a possibility. I wonder if people are putting a higher probability on a political change than I do. The Greens seem dedicated to this regardless of the hard consequences.