Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2085?
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23
Ṁ1268
2085
15%
chance

Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:

  • A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit

  • Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether

  • One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload

There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic. Other markets on manifold predict a start date (at time of writing) of 2069.

Note that the above conditions could be satisfied during construction - e.g. the first payload could be part of a geostationary platform that comprises part of the overall system.

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If this is too soon for you, I've made another market with a longer timeline: https://manifold.markets/Tomoffer/will-we-have-a-terrestrial-space-el-920d2bf3bb3c?r=VG9tb2ZmZXI

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?
50% chance. Resolves YES if the following is satisfied: A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic. My other, more optimistic market on this is at https://manifold.markets/Tomoffer/will-we-have-a-terrestrial-space-el?r=VG9tb2ZmZXI Note that the above conditions could be satisfied during construction - e.g. the first payload could be part of a geostationary platform that comprises part of the overall system.

We don't have materials (at macroscopic scale) with the required tensile strength to do this.

predicts YES

@Thomas42 We have plenty of time till 2085 to discover all kinds of exotic materials.

predicts NO

@RutgerDeMaeyer the base rate for discovery of such materials is pretty low though, I'd say.

With reusable rockets it would be much cheaper and safer just to use rockets. The cost is just the fuel at some point.

@AlexanderLeirvag but that is so much less exciting 😭

predicts NO

@Tomoffer yes but also it is practically impossible to build, even using carbon nanotubes. So sci fi. I have higher hopes for an asteroid colony.

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