Make a Twilight market!
Make a Twilight market!
Ṁ400 / 500
bounty left

Manifold’s growth is being seriously limited by ignoring the needs of the Twihards. Stephanie Meyer’s works are a pillar of modern millennial culture, and their underrepresentation on this app is limiting the platform’s potential.

All major social media platforms have strong twilight communities on them. Here is a chart to make my wild conjecture seem authoritative:

This correlation causation does not lie. The fate of Manifold depends on vampire YA novels.

I will be covering market creation costs for anyone who makes high quality twilight markets (even if you’re team Jacob)

If you are in need of inspiration, I will refer you to my previous Twilight market:

/TonyPepperoni/will-misscriskles-twilight-sims-2-b

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


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11mo

How do you define “high-quality?”

Does it have to be explicitly about the fiction series, or does stuff about the meteorological phenomena or vampires/werewolves in general count?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.