Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
Plus
7
Ṁ15332029
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
To resolve Yes: Official EU documents or announcements confirm the convening and operation of a convention under the Ordinary Revision Procedure(ORP) for the purpose of amending the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
Is such a convention already formally prescribed in the treaties? What happens if amendments are proposed but on the basis of ad hoc negotiations at the Council level, not a convention?
Edit: also I presume amending the treaties to admit new members doesn't count, right?
@BrunoParga the accession of new member states is handled through a Treaty of Accession, not through the ORP.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
27% chance
Will the European Parliament pass a no-confidence vote against the Commission during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
10% chance
Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?
12% chance
Will an amendment be added or repealed from the Constitution before the end of 2029?
7% chance
Will there be an amendment to the US Constitution by 2028?
15% chance
Will the US Congress propose a Constitutional amendment by end of 2025?
3% chance
Will any current member of the European Union invoke Article 50 before 2025?
2% chance
Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?
31% chance
Will there be a US Constitutional Convention before 2030?
19% chance
Will there be a US Constitutional Convention before 2100?
38% chance