Will use Ballotopedia (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ballotpedia/) or the FEC as sources for the official results. I will not resolve this until at least one lists the given results as the official ones (almost certainly Ballotopedia).
For example, in 2020 they were linked here: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020
Criteria for denial:
Donald Trump explicitly states the election was fraudulent, stolen, or illegitimate after its certification as to deny the legitimate winner (presumably him) the presidency. However, him suggesting it was biased or rigged (as he did in 2016: “in some parts”) does not on its own rise to denial of the results.
^this is meant to guard against a hypothetical 2016 YES resolution because he vaguely claimed the election to be rigged “to some extent in some parts,” after he won.
Resolves YES if his denial of results isn’t in keeping with their later certification (e.g. Trump denies Georgia’s blue results on November 7th, but they are not certified as such until November 20th, the market doesn’t resolve until November 20th).
The deadline will be extended for no more than a year after the inauguration.
Some scenarios/questions and their resolutions/answers:
>Trump wins the presidency but declares it stolen from the legitimate winner: YES.
(E.g. Kamala wins but Trump says he stole it from her)
>Trump wins the presidency and does not declare it stolen: NO
>Trump dies before he denies (according to the aforementioned criteria) the results: NO
>The results actually are fraudulent/illegitimate: hence why I listed the sources of deference. Even if the “true” results are not the “official” ones, this market resolves according to the “official” ones
(Say that we find out a year later that widespread voter fraud meant that the “official” results were wrong, the resolution remains unaffected)
>Donald Trump denies the results only in private: NO
(The only denial is a leaked conversation between him and Melania)
^Public: an audience outside of those he personally knows, with little care to who else may hear of it
(Trump denies it at a rally)
^Private: an audience for which the information is not ostensibly intended to escape
>Donald Trump denies them two seconds after the market’s final (possibly extended) deadline: NO
>Donald Trump shifts the results in an unnatural way:
Let’s say Texas is leaning blue on November 10th. The media declares it as such and everyone understands it to be blue. Texas, at this point, still does not have official results! Donald Trump successfully acquires a recount, and Texas goes red (November 11th). Texas certifies its results on November 25th. The market does NOT resolve YES because Trump never denied official results
1,000
1.00Good arb opportunity here: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
Trump isn't going to deny the result of the election if he wins, so this market should be lower than Harris in the linked market. I've put some limit orders in case anybody wants to take advantage of this. (I'm reducing my position.)
BBC:
When asked whether he will accept the 2024 election result, Donald Trump said during the presidential debate in September that he would if it was a "fair and legal and good election".
A majority of Americans - 70% - expect him to reject the result if he loses, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Monday.
Just this week, Trump himself claimed widespread fraud in a key swing state.
“Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before,” Trump posted on his Truth Social network. “REPORT CHEATING TO AUTHORITIES. Law Enforcement must act, NOW!”
This market is still overpriced. My balance is dangerously low so I'm offering some very generous YES limit orders to reduce my investment, but y'all keep leaving my YES orders untouched and buying my NO orders!
Rather than buying YES here, you should buy NO on the various "will trump win" markets, some of which are at 47% and plenty liquid.
@Philip3773733 In 2016 he won and then claimed the election involved millions of illegal votes against him (hence him losing the popular vote). So he kind of denied the validity of the election despite winning.
Can we have a version of this that is conditional on him winning, and a complementary one for Harris denying the results? To appear in the bottom section of https://manifold.markets/election
I would make them, but I don't want to be responsible for the nitty gritty of the resolution criteria.
If Harris wins, will Trump publicly deny the official 2024 election results?
If Trump wins, will Harris publicly deny the official 2024 election results?
Fine I'll do it myself:
https://manifold.markets/Snarflak/if-harris-wins-will-trump-publicly?r=U25hcmZsYWs
Right, while bringing zero charges, zero lawsuits, zero indictments, zero changes, & zero proofs - while having FULL control of the Justice Dept. Unprecedented level of incompetence then?
Likened to “Job numbers r phony” b4 inauguration then, all of a sudden, “my job numbers r great”. Only to end up with a “Deep State conspiracy to tank my job numbers”
Always the victim.
It doesn't, see description explicitly saying that 2016 would have been NO
I’m trying to protect against uncertainty in strange scenarios, but I hear you since normally there’s never a reason to be this pedantic, but say Trump loses a state in terms of people (not to be confused with the popular vote), but the electors are faithless and all vote for him, this market still resolves YES since he denied “official” results, even though he ultimately won the state in the electoral college. On the other hand, let’s say that the electors are faithless in the other direction (state votes for Trump but they vote for Kamala)… HE WOULD STILL BE DENYING OFFICIAL RESULTS (even though everyone would agree that those electors stole that state from him) (hopefully this doesn’t happen, but this criteria also accounts for an insane possibility like that).
I’m also trying to avoid deferring to the media (and instead use Ballotopedia as I don’t want to aggregate all the results myself) since they technically only project the winner, even though the official results actually come much later.
If Ballotopedia is defunct, I can refer to the FEC since they aggregate results as well… just much later and hence prefer not to