This market resolves to the favorability percentage among Republicans according to 538:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/r/
The exact metric measured is "favorable" (and not "net favorable"). On February 8, 2024, Trump's "favorable" according to 538 is 78.5%. (His "unfavorable" is 19.5%, and his "net favorable" is +59.0%.)
The resolution decision will be made as close as possible to the time of death (even if that excludes surveys from before the death that have not yet been added to 538).
If 538 no longer aggregates data on Trump's favorability among Republicans at the time of Trump's death, then a suitable replacement will be found (with consultation from the community). The core of the idea is to measure the general approval and loyalty of Republicans toward Trump over time.
Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Poll Data Source Update
With 538 offline, the resolution will use the RealClearPolling (RCP) index as a data source.
Only polls that include favorability among Republicans (excluding "leaners") will be used.
Examples of included polls are from Economist/YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos, Quinnipiac, and Gallup (all dated around March 2025).
A simple average of these polls will be calculated to determine the final resolution value.
1,000
1.00With 538 offline, this RCP index will be a good place to find polls:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders
From Economist/YouGov 3/2025: favorability 94% among Republicans (not including leaners)
From Reuters/Ipsos 3/2025: favorability 87% among Republicans
From Quinnipiac 3/2025: favorability 88% among Republicans
From Gallup 1/2025: favorability 93% among Republicans
I also clicked from RCP to the listed data for Atlas, NBC, and Pew, but could not find favorability numbers among Republicans from those sources.
I do not know enough about polling to be able to weight these numbers, but I can calculate a simple average among all recent polls listed by RCP that include favorability among Republicans (excluding "leaners").
I see that 538 has not provided updated favorability numbers for Republicans since March 2024. I'm scouting some alternate sources of favorability information, in case we need them, and I'm going to sell my positions in case a judgement call needs to be made. Here are my current two favorite alternate sources of data:
1) Gallup
79% favorability among Republicans as of December 2023
This matches pretty closely with the 538 numbers for that time period.
2) Pew
66% favorability among Republicans as of July 2023
This number includes "lean Republicans", which I think is making the number low. Prefer Gallup for now.