Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.
@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.
I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ35,000 @QuantumObserver
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ13,500 @EvanDaniel
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ32,000 @Tripping
Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ51,000 @sophiawisdom
Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ31,000 @CharlesLien
Nuke loans due upon market resolution - Ṁ5,000 @EvanDaniel
Total: Ṁ167,500
Total loans previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: 711,679 (short term loans not included)
Loans paid off or cleared since Biden dropped out: Ṁ655,500
Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸
1,000
1.00Here's the math I was doing, the screenshot is for the 'two months' calculation. Lemme know if you spot a mistake in my setup
Edit: wrong screenshot, now fixed
@Tumbles How much are you getting for your loans? I imagine that gives you a lot more liquidity to pay back your debts?
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Ya this should make it really easy if I just do nothing. Eliza is right though, might be time to build a new sand castle! Anyone know what the new loan rate is? It was 2% of positions before, right?
@Tumbles says 1.5% when you click on the loan button after once used
it also tells you how much you'd get tomorrow
We're so gonna make it. I can't believe that I thought I was borderline underwater going into the election, lost 200k or something on Kamala losing, and now I feel like after digging into some deeper accounting I'm actually rich? It's like an endless cycle of cope except it's reality itself that is coping and refusing to accept my account should be dead
The only explanation is that I am truly blessed by the grace of Mira
@Tumbles If I'm reading the shareholder report right, you can get all the mana you need to pay off your loans by getting all of the markets that ask "will Tumbles pay off his loans on time?" to resolve YES across the board? Edit: This excludes the 1.4 million Mana loan.
Is this a financial chicken and egg problem?
@Quroe Yup! But I won't be doing that, even if it means everything blows up. I think the assumption I can't do that has been an important part of why people chose to participate in this market. I think it's a fair assumption and won't be punishing it.
It does mean that if I can just manage to pay everything back, then even if it takes all of the mana in my account I will still be left with a lump of mana to continue playing with afterwards!
@Tumbles I find this extremely funny and entertaining. Hats off to you if you make it to the other side.
I thought I was borderline underwater going into the election, lost 200k or something on Kamala losing, and now I feel like after digging into some deeper accounting I'm actually rich?
Wait so where did the deep dig accounting money come from this time then? Last time it was a huge loan from Manifold itself that bailed you out, right?
@TheAllMemeingEye This linked-to market resolving should cover Tumbles's Jan 6 deadline loans unless he has a substantial 0% APR system loan to repay, which I don't think is public information.
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Either that, or Tumbles will play an ace I think he has up his sleeve.
This linked-to market resolving should cover Tumbles's Jan 6 deadline loans unless he has a substantial 0% APR system loan to repay, which I don't think is public information.
as @Eliza says, most of this stuff is public, and in this case you don't need the API or anything, you can spot check the loans on individual manifold positions on their profile. tumbles has 120k of that 130k position in a loan atm.
