Summary

This market will track the movement of Manifold's most popular long-term x-risk market after GPT-5 is formally released. This market will compare the odds of extinction on the day GPT-5 is released with the odds a month afterwards. If the odds have risen, this market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, this market resolves to No.

Fine print:

Resolution criteria: My goal is to admit even a .0001% increase in likelihood as evidence for Yes. I am currently unsure how to view fractions of a percent for markets, so I would greatly appreciate advice in the comments.

Backup resolution criteria: If this plan is impractical/impossible my fallback plan is to measure this to the nearest percent. Assuming the x-risk market is still at 13 and some fraction of a percent, this market will resolve as Yes if the topline number reads at 14 percent or higher at close. In this contingency plan, the chance staying at 13 percent will not be enough to gain a resolution of Yes.

Resolution timing: To avoid confusion about when in the day GPT-5 should be considered to be released, I will use the status of the market at midnight before it is unveiled. For example, if Sam Altman gets on stage to show off GPT-5 at 13:00 on March 5, I will use the price of the x-risk market from midnight 13 hours earlier as a baseline.

To avoid last-minute rigging of the outcome, I will resolve this market after around a month at an undisclosed time. As usual, I will not bet in here to avoid conflict of interest. With that said, I can't guarantee somebody won't dump 1000 mana into a Yes position for the X-risk market with the explicit purpose of manipulating this market. Manifold is the Wild West of prediction markets, and I'd recommend betting accordingly.

Gpt-5: There is a chance that OpenAI's next flagship model will have a different name. What this market is substantively meant to measure is whether investors are excited or disappointed by OpenAI's progress, so if there is a GPT-5-level release with a different name, I will use the performance of Microsoft's stock after that release date regardless of the name. If there are reasonable questions over whether a release is "GPT-5 with a different name" I will use a manifold poll to resolve this.

Launch: I will consider a launch to be a formal unveiling of capabilities. Rumors/leaks don't count. It will need to meet the following conditions

1. I'll expect a presentation with Sam and/or Satya, or at the very least a paper talking about all the benchmarks it crushes.

2. Access given to the public, or at least journalists/privileged outsiders. We need somebody who doesn't work at OpenAI or Microsoft able to use the model and give their honest opinion to the public.