Before adding responses, please ensure they are in the BLS National Employment Matrix. Only job title line items listed here qualify.
This prediction market investigates the employment landscape of 2032, focusing on specific occupations that continue to be performed by humans amidst technological advancements. The assessment will utilize data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), specifically from the detailed occupations listed in the BLS National Employment Matrix.
Resolution Criteria
YES: This outcome will be selected if any specific occupation listed as a line item (e.g., "Software Developer") in the BLS National Employment Matrix shows a growth of over 5% between 2022 and 2032. This growth rate indicates that the occupation is not declining relative to population growth, signifying a sustained or increasing demand for human workers in that role.
NO: This outcome will be chosen if the specific line item occupations in the BLS National Employment Matrix exhibit a growth rate below 5% in the given timeframe, implying a decrease or stagnation in human-operated roles due to automation or other factors.
N/A: This option applies if the BLS data for the specified period is unavailable, incomplete, or inconclusive; if the occupation titles do not fit the specific line item format (e.g., generalized titles like "Software and web developers, programmers, and testers"); or if unforeseen circumstances render the question irrelevant or unanswerable by the end of 2032.
Resolution Time
This question resolves in June of 2033 to ensure there is time for the BLS to gather data from 2032.
Edits
Here you can find edits to categories in order to make the resolution criteria clear. Please remember to double check that the item you're adding appears as a line item in the BLS table.
Title: What Jobs Will Grow At Least 5%
Humans Still Performby 2032? (Thanks to @pietrokc for the title revision suggestion)AthletesAthletes and sports competitorsReal estate [sales] agent[s]
Airline pilots, [copilots, and flight engineers]
Software
and webdevelopersAthletes [and sports competitors]
Resolutions
N/A
Plumbing, electrical, and carpentry work
This is a summary item, not an individual profession listed in the BLS data. These three can be listed separately.
Priest/Imam/Spiritual guide
This is a summary item, not an individual profession listed in the BLS data.
Teachers
This is a summary item, not an individual profession listed in the BLS data. Individual teachers (e.g., Secondary school teachers, except special and career/technical education) can be listed separately.
Video producer
Not in the BLS data.
1,000
1.00@RafalPastuszak data and AI are closely related while programming and logic are closely related i guess?
Related market also using BLS data https://manifold.markets/Ernie/of-the-top-18-jobs-in-the-us-in-the?r=RXJuaWU
Please note that job titles like this will resolve N/A. The criteria is "any specific occupation listed as a line item (e.g., "Software Developer") in the BLS National Employment Matrix." Look under "occupation type" to find which ones are considered line items, and which are summaries.
This is to make resolution easier, otherwise people could point to one particular doctor (e.g., Oral and maxillofacial surgeons) and say because this has increased, "Doctors" as a whole should resolve YES.