Arjun has a significant lead, but Gukesh could pass him if he dominates the world championship match:

@TimothyJohnson5c16 What would Gukesh's score after the 14 WC games have to be in order to gain 18 rating points?

@WilliamKiely According to the calculator here, Gukesh gets about 4.1 rating points for each win, and loses 0.9 points for each draw. So I think he needs at least 5 or 6 wins.

https://tlchessfoundation.com/en/calculator.php

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Nice, the K factor was the part I was unsure about, but that looks right. "K=10 after a player reaches a rating of 2400, even if their rating falls below 2400."

So I think 6 wins and 8 draws would get Gukesh to ~2800-2803.

@WilliamKiely Doesn't the match end early though if one side is too far behind to catch up? They might not play a full 14 games.

Tight race!

Currently 5th, 6th, 8th, 14th, 19th.