Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
Mini
4
Ṁ20
2031
56%
chance

Ends January 1st, 2031.

Attack could be committed by terrorist, state actor, or independent person. Accidents do not count.

Any incident on US territory counts. Incidents on the grounds of other territories may count if they are intentionally directed at US citizens, as opposed to incidentally directed at them.

Primarily with drones means the damage was caused by the drones and their payloads and not by some other weapon, e.g. drones only used for reconnaissance or direction would not count. An attack using one drone with a large payload would also count.

Casualties is inclusive of any significant injury or death.

>9 of course means 10 casualties at a minimum.

Civilians means "not military personnel." Attacks on the president or other non-military government personnel count.

I will not participate in this market.

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