Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS? | Manifold

Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?

Mini

29

Ṁ1716

2028

1D

1W

1M

ALL

65%

Trump wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan

35%

Trump wins, Xi Will invade Taiwan

0.1%

Harris wins, Xi will NOT invade Taiwan

0.3%

Harris wins, Xi Will invade Taiwan

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

bought Ṁ264 Harris wins, Xi Will... NO

@WieDan "Harris wins" options resolve NO

bought Ṁ100 Trump wins, Xi will ... YES

@puffymist I can't do that unfortunately.

bought Ṁ20 Harris wins, Xi Will... NO

How does this resolve if:

The term of the next POTUS ends before the invasion?
The invasion is carried out by a different leader than Xi?

I should have ritten China instead of Xi I will change te title.
As for president ending term early (so death?) I think an invasion after should not count.

Related questions

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan during the leadership of the person in power after Xi Jinping?

Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?

Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030?

Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan while Xi Jinping is in power?

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2025?

Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?

+5% 1d15% chance

Related questions

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan during the leadership of the person in power after Xi Jinping?

Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan while Xi Jinping is in power?

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2025?

Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?

Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030?

If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?

Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules