Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before the end of 2024. Otherwise, NO.
Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them.
Info I think will be helpful:
As of Feb 4, 2024, I have had COVID once (in August 2022).
My current strategy for COVID is "vaccinate and bug-chase". I'll probably get any future updated vaccines, but besides that I will take no precautions. My theory is that I'll keep my immunity current by getting exposed to each new strain as it arrives and that this is (a) likely to result in no infection severe enough to notice/test positive and (b) almost certain to result in no severe consequences of infection.
I live in Seattle, WA, USA
Relevant previous market: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-i-get-covid-in-2023
1,000
1.00People don't seem to be arbitraging this with my related conditional market: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/how-much-will-further-covid-booster
so maybe posting the link here will help!
@WilliamEhlhardt some questions:
how many times have you been vaxxed against COVID?
what other diseases have you gotten?
do you have a "strong constitution" or not (ie do you feel any sort of illness in general rarely for frequently)?
I got 4 doses of the original vaccine, and the 2022 and 2023 boosters as they came out.
Other diseases in the past couple years: couple of colds.
Strong constitution: yeah, I think I rarely get ill. I do have snuffles consistent with allergies routinely, though.