Resolves YES if at any point there are 49 or 51 states in the United States of America by Jan 1st 2030. A state being introduced and a state being removed at the same time would still resolve YES even though there would still be 50. Resolves Yes in the case of the absolute collapse of the US
1,000
1.00If Trump wins, secessionist movements along the Pacific Coast will at least gain steam. Although they may end up fractured.
Also western Oregon may just say “Fine then Eastern Oregon get lost finally, if you love Idaho so much go join it, bye Felicia, oh and Bend isn’t coming along” — uncertain all of Idaho wants it.
Crazy talk maybe, but California and Seattle are going to get pretty tired of subsidizing Mississippi and Alabama, plus Texas judiciary nationwide effects, in any version of Trump II.
Some Relevant Markets
https://manifold.markets/tw/will-puerto-rico-become-a-state-by (2030 - wont come up in the embeded market search for whatever reason)
Adding a state (DC or Puerto Rico) is only possible if Democrats win a large majority in the house and senate and win the presidency. Winning the senate at all will be tough for them in the next seven years, let alone with a large majority.
A state leaving the union or the US collapsing is negligible chance.
@Gabrielle You might want to bid down these markets (at least Puerto Rico)
Relevant Markets
https://manifold.markets/tw/will-puerto-rico-become-a-state-by
https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/dc-statehood-by-2027