@WyattFarace I've reopened the question to allow people to keep trading while we wait for results. If you had intended to close it early, I apologize; you're welcome to change it back.

How will you choose between "other", "later", and "never"? Those answers seem a little redundant to me.

Is this market actually closing in 12 minutes, or is that resolution date a mistake? ig if it is people are locking in their mana for potentially 4 years

Clearly, the main candidate for breaking two hours in an official marathon is Kelvin Kiptum. His next planned marathon is Rotterdam in April: World record holder Kelvin Kiptum reveals his next marathon - Canadian Running Magazine.

After that, I assume his next major race would be at the Olympics in August.

https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/39203855/record-holder-kelvin-kiptum-eyes-2-hour-marathon-rotterdam

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Good for Rotterdam if they get to be the place!

If it doesn't happen there, I don't think it will happen at all in 2024. Everyone is going to focus on the Olympics, and the scheduled course there is very hilly:

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2022/10/hilly-paris-2024-olympic-marathon-course-revealed-that-goes-from-paris-to-versailles-and-back/

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Definitely won’t happen in Paris. I think he also had Berlin in mind but three big marathons in a year may be a tad much.

Allen Downey predicts this will happen in "2032 plus or minus 5 years": https://www.allendowney.com/blog/2023/10/09/another-step-toward-a-two-hour-marathon/

Another step toward a two-hour marathon

This is an update to an analysis I run each time the marathon world record is broken. If you like this sort of thing, you will like my forthcoming book, Probably Overthinking It, which is available…

Kelvin Kiptum just broke the previous record by 34 seconds during his 3rd marathon at the age of 23. After an allegedly suboptimal training season (though who knows for sure). The two hour barrier is 35 seconds away, and Berlin is apparently a faster course than Chicago typically. I think this market now is basically a Kelvin Kiptum injury market.

Edit: Sounds like injury potential is substantial though https://sports.yahoo.com/kiptums-coach-fears-intense-training-191744243.html

Kiptum's coach fears intense training will shorten record career

Kelvin Kiptum will not be slowed or curtailed in intense training, his coach Gervais Hakizimana says, even though it might shorten the career of the new men's marathon world record-holder.Kiptum shattered the old world record of 2:01:09 set by Kenya's Eliud Kipchoge at last year's Berlin Marathon.

@zjmiller Yeah sadly I fear he might become a shooting star (I fear the same for Alcaraz in tennis).

For arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/when-will-someone-run-a-marathon-un-edd5bb538f30?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u

When will someone run a marathon under 2:00 hours at an officially sanctioned race?

2029 expected. That is, by what year... The race must be sanctioned by an official national or international athletic body (e.g. USATF or World Athletics). The runner may be male or female, the race may be run on roads or trails. Some marathons allow pacers (which would not invalidate the record), but no officially sanctioned marathon allows drafting (e.g. by a motorized vehicle).