Will any member of the squad who lost their 2024 election get elected to the House of Representatives by 2026?

Mini

Ṁ75

2026

25%

chance

ALL

Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush were both defeated in primaries so far in 2024.

Will any member of “The Squad” who lost their 2024 primary or general election get elected to the House of Representatives by 2026?

The current members of the squad as of 2024 are:

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Ilhan Omar

Ayanna Pressley

Rashida Tlaib

Jamaal Bowman

Cori Bush

Greg Caesar

Summer Lee

Delia Ramirez

If anyone from this list loses a primary or general election in 2024, and then subsequently gets elected to the House of Representatives before the end of 2026, this question will resolve YES. It will resolve yes whether it’s a special election or the regular election. It will resolve yes if the person runs in a different district and wins. It will resolve yes if they win a general election for a U.S. House of Representatives seat as a third party or write in candidate.

It will not resolve yes in the case of appointment to fill a vacant seat.

It will not resolve yes if someone else outside of those listed above win election to the House.

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Comments

3 Holders

3 Trades

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

Related questions

What is this?

Related questions