Will the aggregated blind mode predictions outperform aggregated full mode predictions in the 2023 ACX prediction contest?
Mini
15
Ṁ361Apr 10
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Refer to this article for more information on this contest: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?
will @jim beat @bayesian in the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest?
11% chance
Will Manifold outperform Metaculus in the 2024 ACX Contest?
18% chance
Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?
58% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?
41% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
49% chance
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
11% chance
In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
17% chance