The next general election is scheduled for Friday, November 29th, 2024.
This market resolves to the next Taoiseach (a.k.a. prime minister) following the election. If no such prime minister is in office by EOY 2025, it resolves N/A. Interim prime ministers do not count.
Resolution criteria partially inspired by Polymarket. I am not an expert on Irish politics so please LMK if there are any edge cases to keep an eye on.
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1.00@Ziddletwix did you mean to have this market closed more than 24 hours before results begin to be announced? or was this some sort of slipup?
@MiguelSanchezb911 It was meant to close before to conserve liquidity (& not intended for live trading). If there’s still some time before any early results are known i can reopen til then, but it was meant for just pre-election bets
@Ziddletwix The Irish Times reports counting will begin until 11/30 9am (local time), and the first announcement will be made in the late afternoon/evening. They do, however, also say they will publish an exit poll right after polls close.
It's up to you whether any of this meets your criteria to reopen it or not.
@MiguelSanchezb911 cool thanks. i'll reopen it for a few hours at least, although i think it's now set to close right around when the exit polls are released (not sure how accurate the exit polls are in ireland—in some places it basically declares the winner, in e.g. the US it doesn't)
If you want to be absolutely totally 100% clear, you could say that in the event of a power-sharing agreement (like the one in the recently-dissolved Parliament), the answer is whoever is Prime Minister first. I think it's already obvious, but people like to whine.
The agreement was that the FF and FG parties would each have the Premiership for two years. FF had more seats so they went first, and now their leader Micheál Martin is Deputy PM.
@BrunoParga Ah sorry totally missed this in my notifications. And so while a bit late, I agree, in the case of power sharing “first” is a natural way to resolve it