If this is trading at 2% or less reliably for a week and the antitrust suit has been resolved, I will resolve this early to NO.

If this is resolved No and then Google sells/divests Chrome after that but still before the deadline, will this be re-resolved?

i hope not, I like using firefox

I'm betting NO purely on priors. What's the best case that this is a legit thing I should expect to happen, rather than something that will get appealed and litigated constantly until Nothing Ever Happens?

Polymarket is at 32% for this happening by May 2025, although the comments say that the resolution criteria are laxer than this market: https://polymarket.com/event/google-forced-to-sell-chrome

I still don't think this should be >50%, but 25% seems low for a longterm market.

Any reason to think Trump will back this? Presumably it'll be held up in court for a couple months until being quashed by the Trump administration.

@Nightsquared Google being the highest payer for the blue campaigns?

@Nightsquared well his admin filed the original case against google for starters

and the lawsuits are supported by tons of red state attorney generals

but yes, he has publicly spoken against a breakup, and it would certainly be messy