Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?
Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?
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Resolves to YES if some combination of federal laws and regulations makes it impractical for a substantial share of newly constructed buildings to install gas stoves. State and local regulations do not count here. Sufficiently high taxes would count if they succeed in practice.
Close date updated to 2026-01-01 6:59 pm
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What if lawsuits along the lines of asbestos lawsuits cause it to be banned de facto but not de jure?
I suppose you're talking about the US federal government? because that seems more likely than the German one banning gas stoves.
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Zvi Mowshowitz
Since I haven't seen it elsewhere, and I wanted to include it in the post I'm finishing, here you go: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-federal-government-effecti
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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