"Will the percentage of top graduates in maths and CS at elite university who aspire to work in AI safety rise or fall? I'd bet on fall!" https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872

Resolves to YES if number go up.

Resolves to NO if number go down.

Resolves to best probability estimate, taking into account market price, if the number is sufficiently hard to measure that we can't tell.

I will not be doing the work to figure out the before or after numbers, but people are welcome to comment with statistics. Nor will I define 'top' or 'elite' here for now. Not going to let the perfect be the enemy of having a market. As usual, if the action goes big, will consider tightening up wording.