Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)
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Plus
214
Ṁ420k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

I currently weigh 94.20 kgs (just checked).

Resolves YES if i weigh 85.20 or less on 31st December 2023. Resolves NO if i weigh more than 85.20kgs.


Here is an auto updating sheet with the latest measurements. Includes a graph as well.

Graph:

Height (barefoot) : 6'2" , 188 cms.

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predicted YES

It was a good goal to set, and I'm glad I set it.

Unfortunate to lose a ton of mana of course, but i don't regret (quite the opposite really) trying to lose weight and being healthier in general.

I'll try again harder in the new year.

Thank you all for participating, motivating, giving all the advice, and of course, correcting the market to the right prices. Have a great new year and remember that goals become way more achievable, all you gotta do is start and make tiny progress.

predicted YES

@firstuserhere The data ends at 85.45 kg, and your goal was 85.20 kg. In every relevant sense except market resolution, I think you succeeded :)

predicted YES

@firstuserhere pretty close!

Having updated after midnight 12/30 with a datapoint for 12/30 is highly suspicious. It gives him 48 hours to try to drop below the line. It's just what he'd do if he was seriously going for this and wanted to cause as much chaos and drama as possible.

bought Ṁ50 YES at 20%
predicted YES

Are you on a keto diet? If not, that's an easy and relatively safe option for rapidly losing 1.5+ kg of water weight. The keto diet works by depleting your body’s glycogen stores, which are typically ~500g of glycogen, with each gram bound to 3-4 grams of water. If you just cut out carbs now and do some anaerobic exercise, you can burn through these glycogen stores in time.

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Why did you resolve this 9 hours early when you only have 250 g to lose?

predicted YES

@HedShock I had a flight to take

Cut off all hair. Shave body. Clip all nails as far back as they go. Book flight to country with same-day appointments for wisdom teeth removal and tonsil removal. Don’t eat the airplane food. Exfoliate (roughly). Leeches. Blood donation. Shave body again. Q-tips to remove earwax. Dry sauna, air dryer to remove sweat. Chew gum briefly until salivating. Spit out gum and spit out saliva repeatedly. Weigh.

2 traders bought Ṁ334 NO
predicted YES

@benshindel are you even betting on this market? 😂😂

predicted NO

@shankypanky I’m hoping he’s FUH’s dietician.

predicted YES

@benshindel This guy gets it

@shankypanky Not really lol

predicted YES

these FUH markets are a wild ride

we've really swung the pendulum from the most wholesome corner of the internet steps market, to "maybe just don't eat or drink or celebrate or move or worry about your health at all until you resolve, k?" weight loss market

there's something for everyone on Manifold 🌠

@shankypanky don't forget the, "Please, sir, bet one single mana today. I beg you," market for people who want that option!

predicted YES

I didn't forget, I thought I'd lob that one up for you 🤜🤛

bought Ṁ1 YES at 23%
predicted YES

Still pretty easy to game weighting by around 1kg. Just weigh yourself after not eating for several hours and dehydrating yourself one way or another. There shouldn't be any issue with doing this 3 days in a row.

/market will anyone encourage FUH to get an eating disorder

predicted YES

@Shump I was about to say the same thing. A day of minimally eating plus a mild laxative and diuretic would do it. @firstuserhere I suggest eating just a little granola & yogurt in the morning (or something even lighter), and drink a bunch of coffee.

Then poop, pee, spit, and fast until weigh-in.

predicted YES

@Joshua Sorry if it seems like I meant something like that. Sure, it could get dangerous if we were talking about losing 2-3 kilos this way, but less than 1 just requires you to take advantage of the natural fluctuations in your weight. Simply weighing in the morning before breakfast might be enough.

Fast 48 hours for charity: $2000 in donate-able manifold money?

predicted NO

The man is already donating half his 100k steps mana, what more can we ask of him?

predicted YES

three days of severe dehydration, to start

bought Ṁ25 YES at 24%

@shankypanky *moderate dehydration

predicted YES

three days of spitting might tip over into the severe category but I'm not a doctor

Number Go Up

@Joshua that just makes it easier for FUH to get cheap shares from you since he still has ~47 hours to fast.

predicted NO

@Jacy And keep it off for three days? Sounds like a terrible way to spend New Year's.

bought Ṁ10 NO at 22%
bought Ṁ10 YES at 22%