49% chance. "Homosexuality is illegal in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and under the federal criminal provisions, consensual same-sex sexual activity is punishable by imprisonment; extra-marital sexual activity between persons of different sexes is also illegal." On January 1st, 2035, will homosexuality (between men or women) be legal de jure in all or part of the Emirate of Dubai? The question resolves yes even if homosexuality is only legal in Dubai but illegal in the rest of the UAE. The question similarly resolves yes if homosexuality is legal in some parts of the Emirate of Dubai only, for instance in some sectors, communities or free zones. The question also resolves YES if homosexuality is legal only for a subgroup of the resident population such as non Muslims or foreigners. The question resolves no if homosexuality is de facto legal with no enforcement despite an official ban. The legalization can be by legislation, executive order, case law, etc.