Hate his guts, but it's almost 2024, so more than likely he's gonna stay leader

No matter how many rumours surround Putin's health, mortality and his usage of nuclear weapons, I believe he will prevail all of them and prove it to the world that he is there for Russia

@AdhithyaV Exactly, he is there for Russia. Not for russians, he doesn't give a fuck about them

@AdhithyaV There is no data that supports your insight. The following can support the hypothesis that Putin can still be leader beyond 2023.

• According to CNBC, since Putin has very little to none opposition, its very likely that he will win next term.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/07/putin-looks-set-to-run-for-president-in-2024-and-theres-no-opposition.html

• Based on Statista analysis of the approval of Putin, the percentage of approval of his government has actually raised from 5 to 8 in the last 6 month. This despite Russian's invasion to Ukraine. https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/

@CamilaHennessey Please stop using chatGPT on this site

https://insightprediction.com/m/244230/who-will-end-their-political-career-first

Who Will End Their Political Career First?

This is an academic prediction market on which leader will end their political career first.

Insight Prediction still has higher odds. https://insightprediction.com/m/192967/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-through-the-end-of-2023

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-suffers-cardiac-arrest-in-presidential-bedroom-an-insider-group-reveals/news-story/c02c8dff64dd79a4c8e53bec6ae8f3d8?amp

Putin reportedly suffers cardiac arrest in presidential bedroom

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly suffered a cardiac arrest following months of speculation over his health. 

@MatthewSakaluk Interesting. My only hesitation is that there's been lots of Putin health rumors in the past, and most were unsubstantiated.

@MatthewSakaluk Its amazing how the press works. "General SVR" is almost a parody anonymous blogger account in telegram, the essence of which is that he allegedly received 100% information from his "sources" at the very top of the Russian elites that Putin is dying, or is preparing to use nuclear weapons, or there will be a new mobilization. By the way, according to his information Putin should have died of cancer last year.And before the message about the heart attack, he also wrote that Xi Jinpin met Putin’s double.. Its amazing that on Sky this is presented as information from a reliable source.

@MatthewSakaluk Мое сердце все еще бьется, Запад все еще истекает кровью ❤

@AltPutin If one were to insider trade on this market, I'd have thought NO would be more profitable.

500 traders, Vlad! So much liquidity. Think of the mana!

@chrisjbillington

Please forgive the self-promotion (or just delete this comment if it bothers you), but I believe this is close enough to be of interest to those who have bet on this market:

https://manifold.markets/AlexandreK/will-vladimir-putin-stop-being-pres

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

33% chance. This question resolves to yes if Putin is no longer president of Russia while Zelensky is still president of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, the reason for either president to no longer be president is irrelevant: lost election, death, destitution, coup d'état, anything counts. If Putin becomes prime minister while someone else assumes the presidency, Putin will no longer be considered president, even if there is broad agreement that the official president is no more than a figurehead. Ditto for Zelensky. For the purposes of this question, in the event that either president would lose de facto control over the capital of his country, he would no longer be considered president, regardless of the de jure situation, even if he retreats to some other place and maintains a government in exile of any sort. It's a bit arbitrary, but I think it makes things easier to resolve, as consitutional issues of this type can become very tricky to resolve objectively. The question resolves as soon as either man is no longer president. If for some reason it happens at exactly the same time for both of them, it resolves as N/A.

@firstuserhere market prices Vladimir Putin to be alive at 92% but expects him to be the leader of Russia at 96%. Quick, someone set up an arb bot over this.

@firstuserhere 2023 vs 2024 though

@42irrationalist oops, misread.

Кто еще? Откуда путаница в том, что этот ответ не может быть стопроцентным? 🤣

Also see https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/russia-coupnuke-combination-market?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJLaW5n

Russia coup-nuke combination market

A combination of https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine and https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p using their resolution criteria. [link preview]

Also see https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/russia-coupnuke-combination-market?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJLaW5n

This market has it at 93% by June. https://insightprediction.com/m/120503/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-russia-on-june-30th-2023

These markets tend to be undervalued, but I think there are real reasons to be worried about Putin. Prigozin seems to be preparing for a post-Putin Russia. Ukrainian intelligence says he's sick. And Putin's extreme Covid cautiousness raises questions. I still put at 80% though.

A similar market

Remarkably flat for the last 4 months even though it should be showing significant time decay

@JonathanRay Why? He isn't up for reelection until early 2024. Unless you believe he is dying, which is not impossible, it should be flat right here or probably 10 points higher.

@BTE He could have died or been couped earlier this year, but he didn't, so we should have updated the probability lower on that evidence.

@JonathanRay I mean higher

@JonathanRay I agree.