Will I graduate from college?
Will I graduate from college?
Plus
36
Ṁ29182031
80%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I am an incoming freshie at Caltech, class of 28'. If I don't have my undergraduate diploma from a four year university by the end of the 2030-2031 academic year, this question resolves no. Will resolve sooner if I graduate sooner / drop out sooner
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
reposted
Anybody want to take over any/all of my M422 Yes shares (M350 value) at 77% to hold for long-term value? Make a limit order and I'll sell to you!
@ismellpillows don't currently plan on it but would not be opposed to it if i find a higher EV opportunity
bought Ṁ5 YES at 71% 7mo
bought Ṁ251 YES
CalTech’s 6 year graduation rate is 93%. I’d buy more Yes if not for interest rates on the long timeline.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will I graduate from high school?
92% chance
🎓 Will I complete my PhD?
12% chance
Will I drop out of college?
39% chance
Will I drop out of college?
27% chance
Will I get my high school diploma when I try to pass it?
88% chance
will i drop out of college?
26% chance
Will I complete my PhD?
66% chance
Will I still be in my degree by the end of 2025?
81% chance
Will I get a 4.0 GPA this year?
87% chance
Will I still be in my degree by end of 2025?
31% chance