Will Mark Carney defeat Pierre Poilievre in the upcoming debates [based on odds change on Polymarket]?
9
Ṁ202Apr 20
51%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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There are two Canada election debates currently planned, a French debate on April 16th, 8:00 PM EST and an English debate on April 17th, 7:00 PM EST.
This market resolves based on the change of the displayed price of Mark Carney between April 15th, Noon EST and April 18th, Noon EST on the Polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada/will-pierre-poilievre-be-the-next-canadian-prime-minister?tid=1743818934282
If his probability increases by 2% or more, resolves Yes.
If his probability decreases by 2% or more, resolves No.
If his probability change is within +-1%, resolves 50/50.
Weird spikes right on the times for checking the relative price change may be ignored if a majority of Manifold users vote to do so on a poll.
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