Trump declares nationwide martial law?
19
Ṁ903
2029
38%
chance

-Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.

-Must be generally declared nationwide, or at least across a large region (it's okay if there are specific areas exempted from it, for example).

-Must be declared by the Trump administration. If Trump is impeached and the next president declares martial law this will not resolve YES.

-Invoking the Insurrection Act does not automatically equate to declaring martial law nationwide, but if the Insurrection Act was invoked and its powers used in such a way that consensus media reporting characterized the deployment as "declaring martial law" then yes, this could resolve YES.

-Will not be resolved YES on a technicality, like "Trump declares a national day of mourning and martial law is declared across the country for 1 second for some archaic legal purpose" or something silly like this, idk what form this might take, but I reserve the right to not resolve YES based on some technicality like this.

-There could be gray areas, for example, if Trump is, for example, technially impeached and replaced, but still remains in de facto power and martial law is declared and it appears to be under the authority of Trump, per consensus reporting, this could still resolve YES.

-I will not bet in this market to remain as objective as possible.

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Martial law is not a status that occurs within the options of US law or government. This complicates the resolution of this question.

@TracyHarms Yep! I know this, but I think it's important to have a more subjective question that tries to capture the range out outcomes that might be defined as "martial law". This is why I am not betting on my own market, as well.