1,000
1.00Ah, this stinks.
I'm actually going to stop betting on BTC markets due to pending litigation, so this will likely be the last time I'll be commenting on BTC prices for a while.
The charts suddenly just turned around on a dime, after looking negative for weeks. Everything just went up within a few bars. If I had to infer something from what happened, one entity suddenly started making a large buy with significant slippage. I wouldn't be surprised if the slippage loss was calculated and intentional to get the price past that resistance level and sell out higher.
I could have gotten out of this market four hours ahead of time, but if I come back to BTC betting I will know never to do it when I'm pushing my sleep schedule back for a quarterly major event this Saturday.
@SteveSokolowski I feel like some introspection is needed. I don't think your takeaway should be "I lost mana here because of my sleep schedule". But also... you didn't lose that much? You only bet a couple hundred mana on this market, from what I can tell.
@SteveSokolowski Breakfast with Santa isn't that major of an event, no need to worry too much about your sleep schedule.
But also... you didn't lose that much? You only bet a couple hundred mana on this market, from what I can tell.
not sure where you're seeing that, it says steve lost 5k? (which is by far his account's biggest loss, so fair for him to be annoyed, in the small-stakes sense of manifold losses).
for the broader point, yes i do not think it is wise for anyone to update all that much on any single loss/win, that's just not how prediction markets work. if someone says steve needs to reevaluate his entire worldview because he took a bet at <50% that lost, whereas had that bet panned out, he would be totally vindicated and everyone else proven wrong, i would say (to put it gently) that person doesn't sound very experienced with prediction markets, and i hope they are using play money.
@Ziddletwix I think he needs to reevaluate his entire worldview not because he happened to be directionally incorrect in this market, but because he was incorrect due to an irrationally high degree of confidence in the most bonkers reasoning methods
(and I suggest you check out my own profit chart if you think i'm inexperienced with prediction markets)
@benshindel "i think his arguments were bad" is a very good reason to update, but i specifically referred to this market's "loss/win"—you would presumably think his reasoning was bad whether or not the market resolved YES? if steve placed that 30% bet thinking it was 99.9% to win, then sure that's pretty strong n=1 evidence that he was badly off. but if he thought that bet profitable because in reality it was a coinflip, then the result itself tells him just about ~nothing about whether his original reasoning was good. glancing through steve's earlier comments, i don't actually see much language indicating his exact level of confidence, just that the current market % was too high (maybe i missed that language).
ofc you yourself are welcome to judge that reasoning to be as bad as you'd like, and update accordingly (i'd add in full agreement that his reference to "sleep schedule" as the issue really doesn't make any sense! nor does ~any of the earlier make any sense to me. and i'd personally update quite strong against anyone posting on a play money website about btc price analysis that's more confident than "i dunno it's sorta like a random walk"). but if steve was unconvinced by everyone disagreeing with his reasoning last week, i'm not sure why he should be convinced today, unless (again) he did have an irrationally high degree of confidence (he bet ~5% of his net worth on this market, so doesn't seem clear to me that he did, but i don't know what his personal forecast of this would have been)
@Ziddletwix well I don't think Steve really sizes bets appropriately given that the majority of his net worth is locked up in a single UFO market, but apart from that, this looks like it's the market he has bet the most in.
But it's more that his reasoning is always along the lines of "according to some complete nonsense analytical trend thing I made up, BTC should peak at 98,540" and I think that given his past history with [REDACTED TO AVOID BEING SUED FOR $69 MILLION BY STEVE], he should have learned a while ago that that's just not how assets trade, lol
@benshindel I never lost a single dollar trading bitcoins, and I never claimed to here or anywhere else. I held hundreds of bitcoins without selling them for 9 years. I'm really getting tired of people on Manifold blatantly lying, and I reported your post. I hope that it is removed by the @mods for false statements or that you edit it to remove the false claim.
@Ziddletwix To answer your question, for me it wasn't a matter of probabilities; I was betting in real time based on the signals. I kept adding bets because the signals were not indicating a rise.
Now, if real money had been at stake, I might have actually remembered that the signals could change with only a few hours notice and written some code or something to awaken me, but this is mana and the whole point of pushing my sleep schedule up an hour a day is to get rest so I can wake up at 3:00am on Saturday morning. I probably am not the only person who takes mana less seriously than real money.
As to that UFO market that everyone keeps referencing, I'm betting there against uninformed users who actively refuse to spend a few hours reviewing evidence and watching testimony, and say as much repeatedly in the comments. Now that the downvote button exists, I also use the number of downvotes on true statements I make to assist me in which way to bet. Knowing how uninformed the people are in that market is reason enough - even if I hadn't studied the topic in depth myself - to take the opposing view.
@SteveSokolowski people is allowed to be wrong about things, this doesn't look like a pattern of harassment
@jacksonpolack I never accused him of harassing me, I just think that it should be removed because it's false. He probably did make a mistake.
That said, mistakes like that can cost you a lot of money in litigation. I would never make a factual statement like that unless I was 100% sure about it. Imagine if my firm were a professional investment advisory company that depended on selling my services, instead of just trading my own money in stocks. My attitude towards that statement would be dramatically more forceful than just "please remove it." And it wouldn't be my personal choice - I would have to do something because it would be my duty to my partners.
While I didn't suffer any damages, the level of risk @benshindel is putting himself at by making loose statements like that about people is insane.
And it wouldn't be my personal choice - I would have to do something because it would be my duty to my partners.
steve with a tear in his eye as he sues ben for 69 million dollars over a loose manifold comment
https://tenor.com/view/wesley-snipes-gif-5584660563414908453
@SteveSokolowski thank you for your feedback, I have made the requested changes to my previous comment! :P
@benshindel Thanks for the understanding! Now, we can get back to war over UFOs.
By the way, @Ziddletwix , what just happened was a short term trend reversal. There's insufficient evidence on the long term charts to say what's going on because there aren't enough bars yet.
You might recall how, back in November, I said that if I was wrong, the most likely cause would probably be a "fakeout" where price goes to $102,000 for 12 hours to trick people into buying there and then the cycle ends. The charts not making sense until just before it happened would be exactly in line with that sort of price behavior. I'm curious if that's what happened here.
(and I suggest you check out my own profit chart if you think i'm inexperienced with prediction markets)
I think @Ziddletwix was talking about Steve, not you
@Ziddletwix To answer your question, for me it wasn't a matter of probabilities; I was betting in real time based on the signals. I kept adding bets because the signals were not indicating a rise.
How is it not a matter of probabilities? That's how prediction markets work
@dlin007 Welcome to Bitcoin. I hope you buy some actual Bitcoin and forget about it for the next 4 years. Make sure to take self-custody. Thank me later!
@dlin007 you call wild ride to something literally every single person who actually understands Bitcoin could predict? lol