Manifold is planning to meet with the lead of Twitter/X's Community Notes on 27th October.

However, they have concerns about whether instead of partnering with Manifold on integrating Community Notes, they'll built their own home-grown solution instead.

From their meeting notes:

[c] (Sinclair) I am skeptical

• Twitter seems to be downranking external links. As a social media platform we compete with them. I think Elon would want to roll it himself if it was successful, or would not want a heavy integration if most twitter users would not count prediction markets as a credible source. It feels premature at this stage. I cannot honestly think of a good proposal for Dan to give Elon

  • [i] (Ian) yeah this scares me, they’re just going to build PMs (Prediction markets) into twitter
    

Resolves YES if Twitter rolls out a feature where users can stake a currency on the outcome of an event, earn or lose currency from it, and the entire mechanism shows a probability of the outcome happening or not, before 2025.

The spirit of the question is whether Twitter develops their own version of prediction markets, as opposed to using another platform.

I will roughly define a Twitter-native prediction market as one that:
- Is accessible from Twitter
- Is branded as a Twitter service
- Was developed by Twitter
- Doesn't use the same currency as other prediction markets
- Doesn't share the same questions as other prediction markets

Integrations with other platforms don't count.

In a scenario like Elon Musk buying Manifold and then integrating it as a feature, it resolves NO.

If X/Twitter forks Manifold's source code and then uses it in an internal new feature, it resolves YES.

If X/Twitter poaches multiple staff members from Manifold and they help X/Twitter develop an internal new feature, it resolves YES.

A forecasting platform, one defined by a platform where users submit their estimated probability for an event instead of betting a currency, will not count towards resolution.

A beta/limited access release not limited to Twitter employees is sufficient to resolve YES. If only Twitter Gold subscribers can access it, or only verified members, or only significant public figures, that still counts.

If Twitter was about to release their own prediction market platform but the government proactively took action and blocked it before it was released (e.g. sues Twitter), question resolves 50%.

If there's any dispute because multiple reasonable good-faith readings of the market description conflict each other, default to resolving 50% instead of N/A.

If there's any dispute about the object facts, default to resolving N/A.