Resolves yes if I attend Manifest 2025 AND spend >$3k USD to do so AND judge this decision to be bad ex-post a week after the conference.
Resolves no if I attend, spend >$3k, and do not regret it.
Resolves NA if I do not attend or do so for less than $3k USD out of pocket.
I’m an undergraduate in Australia. Attending Manifest would be cool but would cost a few thousand in flights and accomodation, also the time cost.
Reasons I might regret going:
Cost might exceed $3k
I judge the marginal value of being in person compared watching talk recordings less than the cost of attending
Time/effort/jet lag affects from my academic performance significantly
I just generally have a bad time
Unrelated freak accident
Reasons I might not regret it:
It would be cool to meet people on here
Never been to SF
I’m writing a thesis on prediction markets at the moment, I may learn something or think of a new angle that improves this
$3k would not realistically affect my lifestyle short or long term (but is substantial)
Reasons I might not go even if I’m willing to pay:
In person exam on/near early June 6th-8th (don’t know when these are, perhaps a 40% chance of this)
Prohibitive to actually get in the US for reasons I don’t know
1,000
1.00If you haven't already, you should read about some of the people who have recently been detained by border authorities for reasons that are unclear. Some US universities are recommending international students not travel, FWIW.
To make the most of a trip, I always try to have a lot of meetings and activities pre-planned.
Some US universities are recommending international students not travel, FWIW.
not to downplay concerns, because unexpected stuff happens, but this specific recommendation is about international students who are studying in the US, who the universities fear could be prevented from returning to the US if they travel abroad. that's a very different worst case scenario than what's being described here.
@Ziddletwix Yes, this specific situation is different AND there have been a number of recent situations that have all been individually different and very much regretted by the traveler. What I'm suggesting is that any reasoning based on base rates of border issues should probably be revisited in light of these recent events. An Australian undergraduate probably has little risk, but whatever the risk is, it's higher than it was, and risks can, now, change rapidly and unpredictably, like in mid-flight. I hate that I even have to say this.
@brod If you've ever posted anything remotely political on social media, your risk is higher. If you're connected to anyone who has, your risk is higher. I'm definitely not trying to talk you out of anything, just giving a perspective. Good luck whatever you decide!