Solar power recently overtook hydropower to become the 3rd largest source of electricity in terrawatts (February 2023).
Some analysts believe that by the end of 2027, Solar PV will become the largest source of energy, ahead of coal and gas, due to declining set-up costs and massive private/public sector investment.
This market asks whether solar PV will indeed be the number 1 source of power (by terrawatts) by the end of 2027 (31st Dec 12 am) according to data from the International Energy Agency.
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1.00It is unclear whether this is referring to electricity or to total power. It's unlikely in any case, but solar is a higher fraction of electricity than total power, and electrical power is about 20% of overall consumption.
If this still based on nominal capacity not generation this will probably happen in 2025 or 2026.
The linked article seems to be talking about nameplate capacity, which is not the same thing as solar being the "largest source of power". Basically, it is adding up the theoretical generation potential of all solar cells, assuming the sun was hitting them all at the same time with maximum intensity. Solar has a fairly low capacity factor, so I don't believe solar will become the "number 1 source of power" even if nameplate capacity rises to exceed other sources, and I am betting NO.
@AaronLehmann well spotted; I imagine that CF for PV is probably around ~5-10%? Do you have a better source for current global wattage output of PV vs others? I'm happy to change the market to reflect actual output as it seems to be more honest than capacity. Then again it may completely tank the odds haha.
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