This question resolves YES if there are at least three live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There have been plans for three presidential debates in every US presidential election since 2000, including 2020 despite only two occurring due to one's cancellation.
For easy reference, here are the number of debates in each election cycle and a link to debate schedules on Wikipedia:
2020: 2
2016: 3
2012: 3
2008: 3
2004: 3
2000: 3
1996: 2
1992: 3
1988: 2
1984: 2
1980: 1 including both Carter and Reagan, 2 total
1976: 3
1960: 4
Will there be three debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden before the 2024 US presidential election?
See also:
1,000
1.00@LukasTilmann They did 2 debates in 2020. Now they are 4 years older and have not attended a single debate yet, what's the reason for going for 3? If one of the candidates does really bad in a debate he can easily justify not doing another one with almost any plausable reason.
@RuiRodrigues They did two debates because Trump caught COVID and cancelled the last debate, which probably won't happen again.
As I said it's more likely that they don't do three debates than in any other campaign, but I really don't understand why it would be overwhelmingly likely. There are many reasons to do the normal amount of debates - it's standard, one could win by doing well in them (both candidates are unlikely to see the other as a masterful debater), shying away from it might be seen as weakness...
I can definitely see why the probability would be 90% but not exactly why it would be this low.
@GCS If Joe Biden and Donald Trump don't debate each other three times as a consequence of one or both of them not being a candidate in the election, then the question resolves NO at the end of election day.