Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2025?
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2025?
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For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.
If Xi ceases to hold all of his formal titles, but comes up with a new one and is still widely recognized as holding de facto power, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
If Xi becomes ill and arguably "de facto" power is held for a short period by someone else, but Xi keeps any of titles during this period, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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