For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.
If Xi ceases to hold all of his formal titles, but comes up with a new one and is still widely recognized as holding de facto power, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
If Xi becomes ill and arguably "de facto" power is held for a short period by someone else, but Xi keeps any of titles during this period, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
See also:
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1.00@Irigi check out what kind of a publication economic times is. Sorry. Appears to be legit. Nevermind
@Irigi this story has been rumbling on for a while. The hawks being replaced with western aligned doves
https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-in-2025
Polymarket says 11% chance of him going out in 2025.
There are six months left in 2025.
Does that imply: 1 โ (1 โ 0.11)^(1/6) = 1.92% chance of going out per month?
Which you could then extrapolate 18 months forward through 2026 and get 1 โ (1 โ 0.0192)^18 = 29.5%
No market movement following this story. The market calls BS. https://nypost.com/2025/06/28/opinion/is-chinese-pres-xi-jinping-on-his-way-out/
@SG is there anything new in this article? It seems more like a summary of older events wrapped in a lot of speculation.
If Xi keeps all of his formal titles but still loses de facto power in a more permanent way (i.e. not just because heโs ill), how would this market resolve?
@eapache I lean to not resolving on that info. Keeping all titles would give me a lot of pause that Xi has in fact lost de facto power. Would therefore likely resolve NO on 1 Jan. Would entertain the argument if it's really unambiguous though.