Will third party candidates account for more than 5.0% of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Mini
7
แน503Nov 6
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
All third party candidates in aggregate.
As reported in major media unless it's too close to call then will wait for FEC report.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will third-party candidates receive 5% or more of the presidential vote in 2024?
1% chance
Will a single independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election?
1% chance
Will a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?
35% chance
Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?
3% chance
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
2% chance
Will a third party candidate receive an electoral college vote in 2024?
5% chance
Will the margin in the popular vote in the 2024 election be larger than any individual 3rd party's vote share?
99% chance
Will a third-party candidate win the US presidency by 2040?
13% chance
Will third party candidates combined receive more than 2% of the popular vote?
99% chance
[Metaculus] Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote...US presidential election?
3% chance