Including the 2040 election.
1,000
1.00@IsaacKing I would put at least 500 mana on YES at 20% that "Excepting Trump, every President from now to 2040 will have studied at law school or served in the military". (With this not making a claim that Trump will win any election)
@StevenK If one of the two current parties changes its name but remains basically the same, it still counts as one of the current parties.
@IsaacKing What I had in mind was more like "if every election from 2028 through 2040 is Democrats versus Libertarians, is the Libertarian party still a third party?"
@StevenK So a situation like this one?
2024: Democrats vs. Republicans vs. a larger libertarian share than usual. Republicans win.
2028: Democrats vs. Republicans vs. an even larger libertarian share, starts to look concerning. Democrats win.
2032: Democrats vs Republicans vs. Libertarians. Libertarians get more votes than the Republicans. Democrats win.
2036: Democrats vs Libertarians, Democrats win, Republicans begin to fade into irrelevance.
2040: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Democrats win.
2044: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Democrats win.
2048: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Democrats win.
2052: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Democrats win.
2046: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Libertarians win.
In that case I think it's likely I'd treat the libertarian party as the new Republican party under a different name and with a different policy focus. (Since presumably it's a lot of the same people.) But if they had won earlier, like in 2036, I'd consider that to be a true third-party victory.
@IsaacKing Yeah, that's what I meant. It sounds like since this question ends in 2040, there probably won't be time for a third party to become a first/second party in this way?
@StevenK Oh, my example was ignoring the resolution date I had chosen. (My last bullet also says "2046", when it should have said "2056", that was a typo.) I think the same process could feasibly happen faster and finish before 2040.
2024: Democrats vs. Republicans vs. the Trump party. Trump party gets about as many votes as the Republican party. Democrats win.
2028: Democrats vs Trump party, Democrats win, Republicans begin to fade into irrelevance.
2032: Democrats vs. Trump. Democrats win.
2036: Democrats vs. Trump. Democrats win.
2040: Democrats vs. Trump. Trump wins.
I would not consider that a third-party win, I would consider that a hostile takeover of the Republican party. I think a true third party victory needs to either be less gradual or take about equal numbers of people from both original parties.
@IsaacKing What if Trump won in 2028 in this scenario, almost entirely through support from formerly Republican voters?
