Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Mini
9
แน6982029
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
The last third-party candidate to win one or more states was George Wallace of the American Independent Party in 1968
That's about 14 presidential elections. Very rough napkin math then suggests 2/14 = 14% as a base rate.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?
55% chance
Will a single independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election?
1% chance
Will a third-party candidate win the US presidency by 2040?
13% chance
Will a third party candidate receive an electoral college vote in 2024?
5% chance
Will a third party candidate be blamed in the concession speech of the 2024 US presidential race?
15% chance
Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
44% chance
Will third-party candidates receive 5% or more of the presidential vote in 2024?
1% chance
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
2% chance
Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?
3% chance
Will there a 3rd party candidate win at least one state in the US presidential election before the US adds a 51st state
23% chance