Was the US already in a recession in July 2024?
Plus
51
αΉ19kAug 1
1%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
July 2024 unemployment data triggered the Sahm rule, which is an indicator that the US is in a recession.
This market resolves YES if the NBER declares, before August 2025 (US eastern time), that the US entered a recession that began or was ongoing in July 2024.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
19% chance
Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
21% chance
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?
18% chance
Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?
2% chance
US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
3% chance
United States Recession by End of Q2?
3% chance
Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
15% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
22% chance
Will there be a recession in the U.S. in 2025?
21% chance
US Recession before 2024? (No) β Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
1% chance