Syria underwent regime change on Dec 8th, 2024, when rebel forces took the capital, Damascus.
The former Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, has been appointed the head of the caretaker government during a transition period.
al-Jalali called for free elections to be held, in which the Syrian people can choose who they want to lead their country.
Will Syria hold such elections, before the end of 2025?
This market will resolve YES on a free election that elects a head of government or head of state, or members of a legislature that chooses (or the leading coalition of which chooses) a head of government or head of state, from its members or otherwise, or an election that elects electors to elect a head of government or head of state, or any other system through which it can be reasonably said for the people to have freely elected a head of government or head of state.
If the election is a sham, or if the leadership positions are merely symbolic and true power remains with an unelected leader, that won't be sufficient for a YES resolution. However an unelected president or monarch with reserve powers to dismiss governments or veto legislation is acceptable.
As the legitimacy of an election or the leadership roles may be a judgement call, I won't bet in this market.
Note: in the case of ambiguity over what counts as Syria, this market is about elections for a national government controlling territory that includes the city of Damascus.
Update 2024-09-12 (PST): - A constitutional referendum alone will not count as a legitimate election for this market (AI summary of creator comment)
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1.00@Siebe A constitutional referendum wouldn't count for this market, it would stay open until an election for representatives or resolve NO at the end of 2025.
Sounds like I should make a copy of this market with an extra year added to the deadline.
@MattP Might still fare better than Ukraine, where elections were eliminated, or Romania, where they are annulled if the outcome is the "wrong" one 😉
@MattP You would think so, but they appointed the former PM head of the interim government instead of cutting off his head, and then the guy called for elections with his head remaining curiously on his shoulders. It's all very strange.
I certainly don't want to get my hopes up that revolutionaries talking the talk of "rule by institutions, not individuals" and of non-sectarianism will actually walk the walk, but it's been a little uncharacteristic so far.
@chrisjbillington if the resolution criteria involve western media reporting on this then the most important factor is probably how in depth they decide to cover the elections and how they end up spinning the story. Expect the bar for free elections to be lower if the government is ideologically aligned with the west/israel.
@OP It will be a judgement call on my part based on whatever media reports and expert opinion I can find. If it's quite ambiguous, I may resolve NA instead of forcing one result or the other. I expect it will be clear enough, but I'm not aware of a way to remove judgement entirely.
I will try to impose a reasonable standard that allows for the fact that many real elections in democratic countries are flawed in many ways and have some amount of fraud, yet we still generally recognise them as free and fair elections.
If there is some organisation that people trust that ranks how free elections are, I'd happily defer to them on the matter. Though that's still not the whole question - whether the elected positions are real or symbolic or puppets may still require a judgement call.