Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?
➕
Plus
9
Ṁ1071
2050
80%
chance

In an effort to incentivize use of public transport or micro-mobility schemes, urbanism advocates are calling for the closure of some streets to cars. These streets could be pedestrianized, made bus only, replaced with only cycling lanes, etc.

The street has to be in Manhattan and be numbered. For instance, streets below Houston Av. do not count because there are many which make a closure significantly more likely. Same goes for streets in Greenwich Village. Also, because streets become significantly shorter north of 125th, I'm only including streets below 125th.

It is enough for only the East or West section of a street to be closed to cars. If it's less than 100% of the street (as in, only a few blocks), I will reserve the right to make the call. I will not bet on this market. I am expecting that if this done, it will call a lot of attention and there will be consensus whether it consists of a comprehensive closure to cars.

Closure has to be permanent.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


Sort by:
2mo

“Be numbered” that’s a shame. Broadway would make a natural pedestrian mall.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.